VFACTS May 2010

[Bossxr8]

Hyundai will never be taken seriously by car enthusiests till they actually get a clue about how to tune the steering and suspension properly. According to an article in Wheels a few months back many of Hyundais suspension and steering engineers don't even have car licences, so how the hell do they even know what they are doing. He compared that to Ford and Holden who have many of their suspension guys with CAMS licenses and love to race, Steve Hoinville for Ford for example who has competed in a few different race series.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

Looking at the numbers in the tech area, Ford again sold more locally built cars for the month!!

Ford: 5179 (3258 + 865 + 1056)
Holden: 5056 (3899 + 1009 + 34 + 114)

That makes it 2 months in a row!!

Just what I had thought and hoped for!

[XR Martin]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

Looking at the numbers in the tech area, Ford again sold more locally built cars for the month!!

Ford: 5179 (3258 + 865 + 1056)
Holden: 5056 (3899 + 1009 + 34 + 114)

That makes it 2 months in a row!!

I think HSV would put them over....

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by 4Vman

Wow Falcon really closing the gap, only 641 difference now, Falcon sedan would have comfortably outsold the Commodore Sedan...

1Holden Commodore3,899

2Toyota Hilux3,665

3Ford Falcon3,258

Nice to see 4Vman! Very nice to see I would certainly expect that the Falcon sedan did indeed outsell Commodore sedan. Making that either 4 or 5 times in the last 9 months for that to occur.

So long as it's profitable growth, then it's good news.

[jpd80]

Falcon 3258
Ute 865
Territory 1056
Fiesta 1004
Focus 711
Mondeo 326

That's all I got......

[SpoolMan]

Wow Great Wall must be stoked sitting between Audi and Jeep.
581 people parted with there money for a 2 star rated metal on wheel.,...
16. Great Wall 581

Originally Posted by russellw

The Supplementary Statistical Data has now been uploaded into the Tech Portal.

Cheers
Russ

Great effort Russ getting this data altogether , thanks.

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by XR6 Martin

I think HSV would put them over....

Techncally HSV is not Holden & FPV is not Ford, so I was still right!!!

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by SpoolMan

Wow Great Wall must be stoked sitting between Audi and Jeep.
581 people parted with there money for a 2 star rated metal on wheel.,...
16. Great Wall 581


Great effort Russ getting this data altogether , thanks.

I believe Great Wall achieves 4 stars in recent crash tests,
that's similar to a lot of more expensive vehicles in that category..

and of course Hybrid Camry (he,he)

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by jpd80

I believe Great Wall achieves 4 stars in recent crash tests,
that's similar to a lot of more expensive vehicles in that category..

and of course Hybrid Camry (he,he)

The suv has a 4 star, thought the utes are still 2 star (well least according to ANCAP).

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by vztrt

The suv has a 4 star, thought the utes are still 2 star (well least according to ANCAP).

I know they retested the SUV but the utes haven't been done again..
I heard something about a tray back coming soon for around $17,990 drive away

[Nikked]

i45 is a damn sexy car, better looking sedan then any Jap sedan on our local market

[XR Martin]

The reason they get 4 stars is because they get full marks for the pole test, yet they dont actually test it. They just assume it will perform well because of the ride height.
I reckon they would fold up like a wet cardboard box in the side test.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by russellw

The first set of our graphical data is uploaded in the Tech area and can be found HERE

Cheers
Russ

Thanks for the great data once again Russell!

Interesting to note, that Commodore lead over the Falcon up to March had already ballooned to 4036 ie 1345/mth. In the last 2 months that has been 402 & 641 for April & May respectively. ie 521/mth. This has meant that Commodore's lead over Falcon is 5079 YTD but has narrowed to a monthly average of 1016.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the year, but i'm thinking that this year may see the overall gap kept under 10,000 units. I can't remember the last time that occurred.

I also think that with the YTD sales gain 2267, ie 453/mth, then a total year gain of 5,000 is certainly acheivable, bringing the 2010 Falcon sales to 36,000 units. Incidentally aligning with my January prediction!

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by XR6 Martin

The reason they get 4 stars is because they get full marks for the pole test, yet they dont actually test it. They just assume it will perform well because of the ride height.
I reckon they would fold up like a wet cardboard box in the side test.

Has that been confirmed? If so, that is terrible. I'm certainly not of the opinion that the GWM vehicles would do anything but fold in an accident.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by Paxton

Holden should be worried. Ford are making a profit on their Operations locally, with smaller volumes, yet are catching up with Falcon, the new Territory is almost here, as is Coyote. The back end of 2010, and the beginning of 2011 is going to be interesting.

Surely, Ford will have to up the line rate early next year? Falcon is averaging just ~500 sales less than Commodore the last 2 months. The initial 3 months were drastically short on stock. But Ford are already needing overtime to keep up with present demand. The wagon is going which will help create 'space' and improve line rate, but there is plenty coming.

The Coyote FPV/Fords are arriving soon, the 2.0 EcoBoost is coming in early 2011, the new Territory around then along with the TDV6.

Interesting times ahead, that is for sure. Cetainly if it is managed well, there will be some good profits to come!

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

Techncally HSV is not Holden & FPV is not Ford, so I was still right!!!

HSV and FPV numbers are included in Commodore and Falcon numbers, they aren't added seperately. So Falcons 3258 number includes all FPV sedans.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by phillyc

Surely, Ford will have to up the line rate early next year? Falcon is averaging just ~500 sales less than Commodore the last 2 months. The initial 3 months were drastically short on stock. But Ford are already needing overtime to keep up with present demand. The wagon is going which will help create 'space' and improve line rate, but there is plenty coming.

The Coyote FPV/Fords are arriving soon, the 2.0 EcoBoost is coming in early 2011, the new Territory around then along with the TDV6.

Interesting times ahead, that is for sure. Cetainly if it is managed well, there will be some good profits to come!

Broadmeadows will have to up the line rate next year for sure. LPi Gas is also on the way early next year.

I think they will have to wait until then to up the line rate as there is no point doing it now as the engine plant will most likely lose some sales to the EB 4 and TDV6, and you don't want to up the line rate down here and then reduce it within 9 months.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Broadmeadows will have to up the line rate next year for sure. LPi Gas is also on the way early next year.

I think they will have to wait until then to up the line rate as there is no point doing it now as the engine plant will most likely lose some sales to the EB 4 and TDV6, and you don't want to up the line rate down here and then reduce it within 9 months.

You mean rebalance the line one time only at the most effective time, when everything is ready to change.

[uranium_death]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Hyundai will never be taken seriously by car enthusiests...

I don't think Hyndai really cater to people who are car enthusiasts.
They produce transport, and not a lot more.
They have been inproving over time and their cars over 20 years have gone from manure transport to highly respectable transport.

They are not 'drivers cars'.

Hyundai also don't care, because their global sales are looking darn nice, and still growing, which means they've placed themselves well in the market.

I won't consider a Hyundai for the same reason as you but for some, they're the ideal car at the ideal price.

[dannyhilton]

The Koreans are getting better, and give them time and they will be able to handle, ride and drive much better. But true that they still have a while to go. As for the i45, can't say I'm a fan. IMHO Kia are doing better, and that's supposed to be the budget arm. Kia models look good, and while they lack some of the finish of their Hyundai counterparts, they are feature packed. They too however still lack driving feel.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by jpd80

You mean rebalance the line one time only at the most effective time, when everything is ready to change.

I think that is what BossXR8 was saying and it makes sense. I'm sure that it would be substantially cheaper to do overtime than to do multiple rebalances in the engine & production facilities. Ie up-balance both facilities, then down-balance engine plant, then up-balance production again.

My 2010 thoughts
* TDV6 Territory will account for additional 6,000 sales, but steal 3,000 I6 sales.
* EB 2.0 T4 will account for 5,000 sales, but steal 2,500 I6 sales.
* LiLPG to add 4000 sales
* Coyote V8 increasing 3,000 sales, but stealing 1,500 I6T sales

So, a net increase of 11,000 vehicles, but 7,000 of those taken by the new TDV6, EB2L & V8. This will be above an overtime assisted 62,000 in 2009. An upbalance of 10% in the engine plant and 20-25% in the production facility could be required!

[Brazen]

Does anyone want to guess how the EcoBoost lineup will work. will it be a unique model in own right - like an Econetic Fiesta, or will it be an optional extra across the range?

[GS608]

I reckon it'll be an optional extra on XT and G6 with the I6 std on everything else

[Bossxr8]

Thats what Marin pretty much eluded to, it will start with XT and G6 (G4 maybe?), and it will most likely be an option of between $1000-1500. More likely aimed towards fleets. Then maybe if there is demand maybe a G4E.

You can pretty much be assured there will not be a Falcon XR4 Turbo.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by phillyc

I think that is what BossXR8 was saying and it makes sense. I'm sure that it would be substantially cheaper to do overtime than to do multiple rebalances in the engine & production facilities. Ie up-balance both facilities, then down-balance engine plant, then up-balance production again.

My 2010 thoughts
* TDV6 Territory will account for additional 6,000 sales, but steal 3,000 I6 sales.
* EB 2.0 T4 will account for 5,000 sales, but steal 2,500 I6 sales.
* LiLPG to add 4000 sales
* Coyote V8 increasing 3,000 sales, but stealing 1,500 I6T sales

So, a net increase of 11,000 vehicles, but 7,000 of those taken by the new TDV6, EB2L & V8. This will be above an overtime assisted 62,000 in 2009. An upbalance of 10% in the engine plant and 20-25% in the production facility could be required!

Phil, I take a different and more positive view.
Where Territory has really suffered big time is the loss of RWD sales,
I suspect the lack of ZF is forcing customers to either buy AWD or something else.
That something else tends to be several competitor's turbo diesel offerings...

So, the inclusion of ZF in I-6 RWDs and a better 10.9 l/100 km should add significant volume..
Some petrol AWD sales will be lost but V6 TDCI will make the overall AWD sales to grow significantly..

Nett Result, Territory RWD/AWD combined sales near 1800/month or about 22,000 a year...

Ecoboost 2.0 will add sales form people who wouldn't normally buy a Falcon - new customers and fleet buyers.
I predict EB 20 will be responsible for about 1,000 sales a month extra to Falcon or about 60,000 I-6/V8 and about 12,000 EBs....

I'm thinking Broadmeadows Production could skyrocket
from 2009's 53,000
to 2010's 58,000...(an estimate on current increases)

to 2011's 80,000.......there, I've said it...

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Phil, I take a different and more positive view.
Where Territory has really suffered big time is the loss of RWD sales,
I suspect the lack of ZF is forcing customers to either buy AWD or something else.
That something else tends to be several competitor's turbo diesel offerings...

So, the inclusion of ZF in I-6 RWDs and a better 10.9 l/100 km should add significant volume..
Some petrol AWD sales will be lost but V6 TDCI will make the overall AWD sales to grow significantly..

Nett Result, Territory RWD/AWD combined sales near 1800/month or about 22,000 a year...

Ecoboost 2.0 will add sales form people who wouldn't normally buy a Falcon - new customers and fleet buyers.
I predict EB 20 will be responsible for about 1,000 sales a month extra to Falcon or about 60,000 I-6/V8 and about 12,000 EBs....

I'm thinking Broadmeadows Production could skyrocket
from 2009's 53,000
to 2010's 58,000...(an estimate on current increases)

to 2011's 80,000.......there, I've said it...

Hard to say ...

I reckon

53,000 in 2009

61,000 in 2010

66,000 in 2011 ?

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

You can pretty much be assured there will not be a Falcon XR4 Turbo.

Personally I think that would be the big mistake. The XR is now your best seller, why not put the lastest & greatest world engine in the best seller??

[russellw]

IF we use the April numbers (the last month I have full data for as yet then:

Holden - 3,165 including 215 HSV sedans so a Holden only total of 2,950
Ford - 2,763 including 46 FPV sedans so a Ford only total of 2,717

... or a difference of 233 units. Interesting to note that in those numbers are some 159 HSV and SS/SS-V wagons.

For the Utes:

Holden - 812 which includes 92 HSV Utes for a Holden total of 720
Ford - 794 which includes 32 FPV Utes for a Ford total of 762.

Cheers
Russ

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

Personally I think that would be the big mistake. The XR is now your best seller, why not put the lastest & greatest world engine in the best seller??

Because it further waters down the XR6 name by having less power. It used to be one of the quickest cars in the range, now its no faster than an XT.

Maybe they should do a Zetec version, with the XR's sports suspension, 17's and some of the interior and exterior bits, but not the whole XR kit and caboodle.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Because it further waters down the XR6 name by having less power. It used to be one of the quickest cars in the range, now its no faster than an XT.

Maybe they should do a Zetec version, with the XR's sports suspension, 17's and some of the interior and exterior bits, but not the whole XR kit and caboodle.

XR6 for $32,990 drive away does quite a bit to water down the appeal,
More than ever, XR6 seems like the new XT for private and user chooser buyers..

Fast forward to June 2011, I wonder if there's a deal for XR6 with ZF/manual for $35,990 drive away....