VFACTS May 2010

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Phil, I take a different and more positive view.
Where Territory has really suffered big time is the loss of RWD sales,
I suspect the lack of ZF is forcing customers to either buy AWD or something else.
That something else tends to be several competitor's turbo diesel offerings...

So, the inclusion of ZF in I-6 RWDs and a better 10.9 l/100 km should add significant volume..
Some petrol AWD sales will be lost but V6 TDCI will make the overall AWD sales to grow significantly..

Nett Result, Territory RWD/AWD combined sales near 1800/month or about 22,000 a year...

Ecoboost 2.0 will add sales form people who wouldn't normally buy a Falcon - new customers and fleet buyers.
I predict EB 20 will be responsible for about 1,000 sales a month extra to Falcon or about 60,000 I-6/V8 and about 12,000 EBs....

I think Ecoboost will be lucky to get 300 a month. More money for less power, less torque and a bit better fuel economy - usually that is what the base engine is for!! Imagine if Holden made the SIDI 3.6 standard and you had to pay an extra $1500 for the 3.0 with its better fuel economy- essentially the same principle.

If the Camry Hybrid is struggling at $34,000 and that has more power, more torque and much better fuel economy than a base Camry then a $44,000 Ecoboost XT will certainly struggle.

And anyway wouldnt you pick the LPi LPG if you wanted outstanding economy? I also think very few 4 cylinder only fleets would go Falcon when you have the Hybrid Camry available and other 4 cylinder fleet stalwarts.


Who knows could do really well , it would be great to see it succeed but maybe it needs to be a base engine....

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Brazen

I think Ecoboost will be lucky to get 300 a month. More money for less power, less torque and a bit better fuel economy - usually that is what the base engine is for!! Imagine if Holden made the SIDI 3.6 standard and you had to pay an extra $1500 for the 3.0 with its better fuel economy- essentially the same principle.

Ecoboost will compete with Commodore's 3.0 SIDI V6 therefore, it will be similar price.
Holden has nowhere to go with it's 3.0 SIDI, they've played their card and lost
because DI engines can only "lean burn" under light loads where as Ecoboost
can "part throttle lean boost" due to the increased rates of EGR suppressing detonation...

There are quite a few private and government fleets where six cylinder
vehicles are not considered because of CO2/ fuel economy limits.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Because it further waters down the XR6 name by having less power. It used to be one of the quickest cars in the range, now its no faster than an XT.

Maybe they should do a Zetec version, with the XR's sports suspension, 17's and some of the interior and exterior bits, but not the whole XR kit and caboodle.

Well if drivers better then the XT rubbish then its fine. Remember the SV6 is a smidge quicker in a straight line but slower around the track.

Originally Posted by Brazen

I think Ecoboost will be lucky to get 300 a month. More money for less power, less torque and a bit better fuel economy - usually that is what the base engine is for!! Imagine if Holden made the SIDI 3.6 standard and you had to pay an extra $1500 for the 3.0 with its better fuel economy- essentially the same principle.

Who said it would be sold at a premium?

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by Brazen

And anyway wouldnt you pick the LPi LPG if you wanted outstanding economy? I also think very few 4 cylinder only fleets would go Falcon when you have the Hybrid Camry available and other 4 cylinder fleet stalwarts.

Right there is where I think you have it all wrong.. The general public (I am one) will NEVER buy a LPG car! So a 4 clyinder petrol engine with V6 power in an XR packaging is of interest to me!! Add the fact the new I4 is "high Tech" again appealing to younger buyers (me) over a aging I6 with "low Tech"!! Also younger buyers are turned on by "turbos" rather than V8's.. Times are changing, personally I think the I4 Tubro will be a winning, I'm just disaapointed it might not come in an XR4T packaging..

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

Right there is where I think you have it all wrong.. The general public (I am one) will NEVER buy a LPG car! So a 4 clyinder petrol engine with V6 power in an XR packaging is of interest to me!! Add the fact the new I4 is "high Tech" again appealing to younger buyers (me) over a aging I6 with "low Tech"!! Also younger buyers are turned on by "turbos" rather than V8's.. Times are changing, personally I think the I4 Tubro will be a winning, I'm just disaapointed it might not come in an XR4T packaging..

I remember people saying the public would never buy a diesel passenger car, the right products can change percpetions.

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by Brazen

I remember people saying the public would never buy a diesel passenger car, the right products can change percpetions.

Well, the same can be said about the I4T!!!!

Lets hope we are both right!!

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by russellw

IF we use the April numbers (the last month I have full data for as yet then:

Holden - 3,165 including 215 HSV sedans so a Holden only total of 2,950
Ford - 2,763 including 46 FPV sedans so a Ford only total of 2,717

... or a difference of 233 units. Interesting to note that in those numbers are some 159 HSV and SS/SS-V wagons.

For the Utes:

Holden - 812 which includes 92 HSV Utes for a Holden total of 720
Ford - 794 which includes 32 FPV Utes for a Ford total of 762.

Cheers
Russ

Thanks for the further April breakdown Russ! So,if Coyote is the success it deserves to be then Ford/FPV could be a winner in sedan sales every month. Not just the 4/5 out the last 9 months that it has. Ute would most likely take back the crown too. IMO it seems that they have reduced the Ute production output to supply more Territory & FG sedans.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Phil, I take a different and more positive view.
Where Territory has really suffered big time is the loss of RWD sales,
I suspect the lack of ZF is forcing customers to either buy AWD or something else.
That something else tends to be several competitor's turbo diesel offerings...

So, the inclusion of ZF in I-6 RWDs and a better 10.9 l/100 km should add significant volume..
Some petrol AWD sales will be lost but V6 TDCI will make the overall AWD sales to grow significantly..

Nett Result, Territory RWD/AWD combined sales near 1800/month or about 22,000 a year...

Good reasonings, but that is an annual figure. I think 18,000 if you account for an estimated March 2011. ie extra 6,000 sales in 2011.

[R-Design]

FPV (Tickford according to CarPoint) are delusional sometimes. Everything's great, just don't ask us what the numbers are...

Oh yeah, no Coyote until October. Earliest!!!!

HSV and FPV retail position now stronger than ever

Australia's muscle car future seems like a sure thing, with Holden Special Vehicles and Ford Performance Vehicles both gaining good traction in showroom sales. Retail sales are stronger than ever, and with last year's federal government small business investment allowance pushing performance commercial vehicle sales through the roof, the good times mean good deals can be found on both sides of the Holden/Ford divide.

HSV reported quarter-one sales 67 per cent stronger than the same time last year, with sales of its new hero model, the E2 Series GTS, outstripping supply. Traditional strong sellers Maloo (up 40 per cent) and ClubSport R8 (up 70 per cent) are also vying for a place at the top of the sales chart.

"These three nameplates really represent the core of our business and the core of our brand," explained HSV's General Manager of Marketing, Tim Jackson. "It is great to see the demand that exists for our product, and the opportunities that continued innovation provide us as we move into the future."

Alongside these familiar nameplates, the new limited edition Maloo GXP and ClubSport GXP models have also sold well, dealerships reporting the models moving as quickly as they can be built. A limited edition '20 Years of ClubSport' will also join the ranks from the end of this month with early interest keen.

The Blue Oval's performance arm FPV is also reporting a steady start to 2010 with a source telling the Carsales network that sales figures have met quarter-one projections and are well on track to continue at their steady pace through the run-out phase of the existing FG model line-up.

Selling particularly well, as is the case at HSV, the crew at FPV report limited edition models, such as the recent nod to a 1970s icon, the Falcon GS, has sold out both here and the other side of the ditch. Dealerships in Australia and New Zealand were quick to place the keys to all 325 available cars (250 sedans and 75 utes) in welcoming hands. Ute sales too are strong, commercial models accounting for 40 per cent of all FPV sales.
As for when we're likely to see the new Coyote-powered range of FPVs land Down Under, the tight-lipped Tickford crew suggested a late showing this year was probable, but said they wouldn't be giving any more away until at least quarter-four.

FPV will shoehorn the US-sourced 5.0-litre V8 into its future models to keep on top of strict new emission regulations the existing 5.4-litre unit can't meet. Despite its smaller displacement, Ford's more technologically advance bent-eight will deliver output figures (307kW/529Nm) similar to the current powerplant's, while at the same time undercutting fuel economy and CO2 figures.

http://www.carpoint.com.au/news/2010...r-muscle-19660

[cosmo20btt]

Originally Posted by Boss315

FPV (Tickford according to CarPoint) are delusional sometimes. Everything's great, just don't ask us what the numbers are...

Oh yeah, no Coyote until October. Earliest!!!!


http://www.carpoint.com.au/news/2010...r-muscle-19660

So has any one said how Holden plans to combat euro emissions deadline? As Ford seams to be meeting the target but nothing from the other side of the fence, or will they just ignore it?

[My poor XF]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

Right there is where I think you have it all wrong.. The general public (I am one) will NEVER buy a LPG car! So a 4 clyinder petrol engine with V6 power in an XR packaging is of interest to me!! Add the fact the new I4 is "high Tech" again appealing to younger buyers (me) over a aging I6 with "low Tech"!! Also younger buyers are turned on by "turbos" rather than V8's.. Times are changing, personally I think the I4 Tubro will be a winning, I'm just disaapointed it might not come in an XR4T packaging..

I'd buy a LPG car. especially LI-LPG, almost identical power levels and cheaper to run. Not interested in a turbo (G6ET is the exception but would prefer a G8E) and im not that old.

I also know the current I6 is just as high tech as an ecoboost 4.

4 cylinders dont interest me but i think that it will sell quite well.

[naddis01]

I found this comment very interesting...

Ute sales too are strong, commercial models accounting for 40 per cent of all FPV sales.

Is there still talk of dropping the Pursuit?

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by My poor XF

I also know the current I6 is just as high tech as an ecoboost 4.

You are completely dreaming if you think that!!

[Paxton]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

You are completely dreaming if you think that!!

Quoted for Truth.

[jpd80]

Ecoboost achieves it goals by using "part throttle lean boost" aided by higher EGR rates to prevent detonation.
It is far more than just another DI turbo I-4, it's the future and a true replacement for displacement.

You watch what happens when they start upping the boost and EGR in the next two generations,
By 2017 and Gen 3, that 2.0 could be putting out close to 210 Kw and 380 nm,

Performance doesn't go away, it just changes its appearance...

[Swordsman88]

Originally Posted by Paxton

Quoted for Truth.

Save the trouble andrew. There are a few people out there trying to make this point RE the I6 tech and its wasted on most....even ford faithful. Just because it may share some nominal measurements with an engine that was once built in the same factory 50 years ago does NOT make it similarly aged.

Apart from the whole iron block mantra (and that brings positives and negatives), the I6 is a thoroughly modern engine. And very well executed at that, with some of the best in house engine tuning of any mass production engine currently on the market. It has been the pioneer of a range of new Ford tech in recent years alone....DiVCT anyone?

Regardless, whether you claim the presence of a given 'feature' is smarter tech or not (and bare in mind alot of it is marketing speak and not engineering fact), its about outcomes. Toyota ran a camry hybrid advertisment with the tagline 'most advanced australian built car'....haven't seen it lately. Possibly GMH had a sook....i dont' know (they have claimed the DI crappytec is the most advanced.....though its hardly local design). Either way, its a moot point when an imported mondeo diesel burn less (yes i know diesel costs more but still) than a hybrid camry. Or a 'unadvanced' 4.0I6 burns less than a 3.0 or 3.6 DI V6....

As for the ecoboost having a price premium....doubt it. Ford may do that if they felt the 'eco' image waranted a bit of price gouging but given the new model status they daren't risk shooting it in the foot straight off. No cost option on high spec models (if they make it available...) and the default engine in low spec (XT etc.). So you end up with a XT with standard I4, with I6/I6LPG a modest price increase (call it $1000). Then a G4/G6 for the same price, and possibly option of the engine in a G6E. Doubt any XR will get it unless they went for a more agressive tune. Wouldn't rule out a R4/R6 (ala utes) setup though thereby replacing the XR6 NA which is really a betrayal of the original XR6 setup (bodykit XT now).

Anyone that thinks a mass produced I4T will cost Ford Aus more to put in th car than their own I6 is crazy IMO. At worst they would cost the same. Ford is more likely to use it as an opporutnity to continue the slow increase in price of the I6XT by 'undercutting' the commodore with the EBI4 (by a few hundred). If i had to pick between a EBI4 falcon for $35k and a 3.0 SIDI commodore for $35500 i know which way id go...I6 fan or not....

[My poor XF]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

You are completely dreaming if you think that!!

and it's a dream that will be hard to wake from.

Care to elaborate how the I6 is low tech? I think swordsman hit the nail on the head with regards to the I6 tech and it's acheivements against the 'incredibly advanced' 3.0l sidi engine.

It is indeed a modern engine.

And I agree with you re the I4T I think it will be a cracker engine.

[Joe5619]

I don’t know the facts & don’t need to know them..

What I know is the I6 as been an Australia R&D engine for decades & done on very limited budgets. Eco Boost is the latest engine Ford Global has developed for use in nearly all future petrol engines world wide & has been patented by Ford so other can't copy. People don’t try to copy something that is low tech & old!!

Maybe Low tech was the wrong word to use to description the I6, but it is fair to say the I4 Eco boast is ahead in terms of the latest & greatest Tech & design thinking..

[deesun]

Aren't we getting a bit off topic here?

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Swordsman88

Save the trouble andrew. There are a few people out there trying to make this point RE the I6 tech and its wasted on most....even ford faithful. Just because it may share some nominal measurements with an engine that was once built in the same factory 50 years ago does NOT make it similarly aged.

Apart from the whole iron block mantra (and that brings positives and negatives), the I6 is a thoroughly modern engine. And very well executed at that, with some of the best in house engine tuning of any mass production engine currently on the market. It has been the pioneer of a range of new Ford tech in recent years alone....DiVCT anyone?

Regardless, whether you claim the presence of a given 'feature' is smarter tech or not (and bare in mind alot of it is marketing speak and not engineering fact), its about outcomes. Toyota ran a camry hybrid advertisment with the tagline 'most advanced australian built car'....haven't seen it lately. Possibly GMH had a sook....i dont' know (they have claimed the DI crappytec is the most advanced.....though its hardly local design). Either way, its a moot point when an imported mondeo diesel burn less (yes i know diesel costs more but still) than a hybrid camry. Or a 'unadvanced' 4.0I6 burns less than a 3.0 or 3.6 DI V6....

As for the ecoboost having a price premium....doubt it. Ford may do that if they felt the 'eco' image waranted a bit of price gouging but given the new model status they daren't risk shooting it in the foot straight off. No cost option on high spec models (if they make it available...) and the default engine in low spec (XT etc.). So you end up with a XT with standard I4, with I6/I6LPG a modest price increase (call it $1000). Then a G4/G6 for the same price, and possibly option of the engine in a G6E. Doubt any XR will get it unless they went for a more agressive tune. Wouldn't rule out a R4/R6 (ala utes) setup though thereby replacing the XR6 NA which is really a betrayal of the original XR6 setup (bodykit XT now).

Anyone that thinks a mass produced I4T will cost Ford Aus more to put in th car than their own I6 is crazy IMO. At worst they would cost the same. Ford is more likely to use it as an opporutnity to continue the slow increase in price of the I6XT by 'undercutting' the commodore with the EBI4 (by a few hundred). If i had to pick between a EBI4 falcon for $35k and a 3.0 SIDI commodore for $35500 i know which way id go...I6 fan or not....

Marin has already stated that the EcoBoost 4 will have a premium of between $1000 to $1500 over the I6, depending on exchange rates next year.

Alloy blocks, turbos, intercoolers and direct injection aren't fitted to the NA I6, so the extra costs of those items will push the price past the I6. Just look how much more expensive an XR6 Turbo is over an NA XR6, on the BA it was 4-5k.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Marin has already stated that the EcoBoost 4 will have a premium of between $1000 to $1500 over the I6, depending on exchange rates next year.

No pricing of the Ecoboost I-4 engine has been released, what Burela said was this:

"To us the EcoBoost will be an affordable technology for those people that choose to
buy into that proposition," he said."It will not be the stripped out Falcon with only a
driver's seat to take the weight out because the four-cylinder won't be able to [cope]."

[naddis01]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Alloy blocks, turbos, intercoolers and direct injection aren't fitted to the NA I6, so the extra costs of those items will push the price past the I6. Just look how much more expensive an XR6 Turbo is over an NA XR6, on the BA it was 4-5k.

The price difference between the XR6 and XR6 turbo is not only down to extra costs of the turbo setup. Surely the consumer is willing to pay a certain price more for the extra performance over the NA I6.

[Swordsman88]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Marin has already stated that the EcoBoost 4 will have a premium of between $1000 to $1500 over the I6, depending on exchange rates next year.

Alloy blocks, turbos, intercoolers and direct injection aren't fitted to the NA I6, so the extra costs of those items will push the price past the I6. Just look how much more expensive an XR6 Turbo is over an NA XR6, on the BA it was 4-5k.

I dont' recall that comment but if you say so then so be it. Did he mean the ecoboost 'car models' would have that premium or the engine will cost that much more? As you say, its all exchange rate related. That would be the only reason why it would cost more IMO. Sure it has alot more hardware on it but a quick look at the huge production rates illustrates that economy of scale wise....in US dollars it certainly would not cost more to make a EB I4 than the I6.

THe issue ford will have is that you can probably charge a bit more (1k or so) for the EB privelege if it is enough to convince private buyers etc it is more 'techy' but you won't have much hope with the fleets. The relative fuel burn advantage of the I4 over the I6 woudl need to be recouped in a the comparitively short time frame the cars would be in the fleet. And their is not much chance of that if it is up against LiLPG. Moreover, if you are competiting against even lower fuel buring medium car 4pots why would you want to jack up the price of the Falcon....it just makes the business case worse.

If ford can make money (not much mind) selling XR6s for 35k driveway it can make money on a 36k ecoboost XT....

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

No pricing of the Ecoboost I-4 engine has been released, what Burela said was this:

I would not be able to find the article now as it was months ago, but Burela specifically said they would be looking at a price premium of between $1000-1500 for the EB option.

The final price will obviously vary depending on the exchange rate come release time.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by naddis01

The price difference between the XR6 and XR6 turbo is not only down to extra costs of the turbo setup. Surely the consumer is willing to pay a certain price more for the extra performance over the NA I6.

The FG turbo has a different spec level to XR6, bigger wheels etc, but on the BA there was very little difference spec wise between turbo and NA.

R&D costs must also be factored in, i'm sure getting the EB engine installed would not have been cheap. This is probably the main reason it will carry a small price premium, specifically when volumes should be lower than I6.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

The FG turbo has a different spec level to XR6, bigger wheels etc, but on the BA there was very little difference spec wise between turbo and NA.

R&D costs must also be factored in, i'm sure getting the EB engine installed would not have been cheap. This is probably the main reason it will carry a small price premium, specifically when volumes should be lower than I6.

IIRC, $230 million for EB I-4 or about the cost of a replacement Station Wagon,
a premium of $1,000 or $1,500 so over an I-6 is a big hurdle for EB I-4 to overcome....

[Paxton]

Originally Posted by jpd80

IIRC, $230 million for EB I-4 or about the cost of a replacement Station Wagon,
a premium of $1,000 or $1,500 so over an I-6 is a big hurdle for EB I-4 to overcome....

People are willing to pay double that for a Diesel, how is it not possible that they would pay a premium for what will be billed as a premium engine?

[Road_Warrior]

Fleets will pay it. Especially govvy fleets.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Paxton

People are willing to pay double that for a Diesel, how is it not possible that they would pay a premium for what will be billed as a premium engine?

That's what i mean, Ford has missed the appeal of diesel in the market at every turn,
are they that inept that they think Falcon buyers won't cough up for a V6 Diesel?

That to me would be a much easier sell than Ecoboost I-4, an engine with good tech
but hard to sell to a mature falcon audience especially with a price premium.

[naddis01]

Originally Posted by jpd80

That's what i mean, Ford has missed the appeal of diesel in the market at every turn,
are they that inept that they think Falcon buyers won't cough up for a V6 Diesel?

That to me would be a much easier sell than Ecoboost I-4, an engine with good tech
but hard to sell to a mature falcon audience especially with a price premium.

I agree. A diesel would be a much easier sell than the Ecoboost in my opinion. Even if the Ecoboost is billed as a premium engine how are they going to convince the average buyer public that it is not just another 4 cyl in a heavy car?

At 230mill, that would be what, between 1/4 and 1/3 the cost of an entire new Falcon? So going off that train of thought it will have to have a net increase of atleast 25-33% of the total Falcon sales. That would be about 600 - 800 extra sales needed. Is this realistic?